The Historic Norm "Accepted for Settlement"
We find the historic annual norm for immigrants "accepted for settlement" in the UK from 1960 up until 1997 inclusive, when numbers changed dramatically. Pic from the "Enough is Enough" rally in George Square, Glasgow, Saturday 7 September 2024.
In our quest to find a figure which represents the "historic norm" for post-war immigration into the UK, we researched and published our article Finding a Historic Norm for Gross Immigration into UK.
We stressed the importance of looking at annual gross immigration-in figures, and not the "net" figures which subtract the emigration-out.
Looking at the post-war figures we found a yearly average of around 100,000 "long-term immigrants" a year , post-war from 1947 up until 1997 inclusive – the year when figures really started to rise after the election of Tony Blair's New Labour.
In this article, which can be considered a "part 2", we look at another possible way of calculating a historic norm – that is, immigrants who are "accepted for settlement".
DIFFERENCE between "LONG-TERM IMMIGRATION" and "ACCEPTED FOR SETTLEMENT" FIGURES
The standard definition of a "long-term migrant" is a person intending to stay in the UK for 12 months, having been outside the country for at least 12 months, and vice versa for an emigrant.
"Accepted for Settlement", however, is a legal phrase which applies to those long-term immigrants who have been given "indefinite leave to remain".
WHO is GIVEN "INDEFINITE LEAVE to REMAIN"?
The "accepted for settlement" figure is published annually by the Home Office. The Gov UK website explains eligibility and says:
Indefinite leave to remain is how you settle in the UK. It's also called 'settlement'. It gives you the right to live, work and study here for as long as you like, and apply for benefits if you're eligible. You can use it to apply for British citizenship. (1)
These will be people, such as "asylum seekers" who were granted temporary "leave to remain" for 5 years but are now eligible, after 5 years, to apply for "indefinite leave to remain". If granted, then after a further year, these people will also be eligible to apply for British citizenship if they choose.
It also records those who have been granted the right to live, work, and study in the UK without restriction because they have previously held a qualifying visa for, usually, 5 years. It will also include those who have been granted fast-track settlement options, based on various skilled visa categories.
"Discretionary" grants of "indefinite leave to remain" can also be given to unsuccessful "asylum seekers" when they are trying to clear the backlog!
It also includes all such eligible people being joined by spouses and dependents such as children or grand-parents, and more recently, civil partners, and unmarried partners.
A grant of settlement does not entitle a person to automatic "British citizenship", which is something that must be applied for separately. However, it does entitle a person to access state benefits and register any of their UK-born children as British citizens. (2)
"ACCEPTED FOR SETTLEMENT" FIGURES FALL BEHIND the ANNUAL ENTRY FIGURES
"Accepted for settlement" figures are "delayed" figures in the sense that they lag behind the number of immigrants and "asylum seekers" who are being counted as "long-term immigrants" entering each year (the subject of our previous article on these numbers).
Nor will the figures for "long-term immigrants entering each year" and "accepted for settlement each year" be the same number because many people counted as entering the UK for over a year will leave after a year or so, or when their visas expire. Nor will they all want to apply for, or be granted, "indefinite leave to remain".
However, the figure for "settlement" does represent many of those who came in previous years, and who have since applied for "indefinite leave to remain", and who are now successful in their application.
In that sense, we can use the "accepted for settlement" figures to give us an approximate guide to the numbers coming in and who are legally staying on. (3)
FIGURES from 1960 to 2023
British government records of those accepted for settlement began in 1960. (4)
We have found the figures on the following Excel spreadsheet, published by the Home Office on 27 Feb 2020. (5)
We've posted two screenshots. The first table below shows the figures from 1960 to 2018 inclusive – a total of 4,993,844 accepted for settlement. You can click on these pics to enlarge them.
The second table below totals the figures above from 1960 to 1997 inclusive.
We see there were 2,311,505 people accepted for settlement in the 38 years inclusive between 1960, when records of settlement began, to December 1997, the end of the year when things started to increase markedly.
This was an average of 60,830 per year (actually 60,829.07 but we can't have .07 of a person so we round it up to the nearest human).
There were a further 2,682,339 accepted for settlement in the 21 years inclusive between 1998 and 2018, which is an average of 127,731 per year (rounded up to the nearest human).
Therefore, in the 21 years after Tony Blair, the average annual numbers more than doubled, compared to the 38 years previous to Blair.
For completion to the date of writing, here are the following 5 years, 2019 to December 2023, which we've found from the following Table se_01 (6). You can click on the pic to enlarge it.
2019 – 91,439
2020 – 85,457
2021 – 106,123
2022 – 131,627
2023 – 119,501
That's an additional 534,147 in those 5 years (average 106,830 per year), making a total of 3,216,486 in the 26 years post-New Labour's election victory, from 1998 to 2023 inclusive, and a yearly average of 123,711.
This is over twice the average of 60,830, between 1960 and 1997 inclusive.
CONVERTING this INFORMATION into POLICY
We can say that there was an average of around 60,000 people per year accepted for settlement in the UK in the period 1960 to 1997 inclusive, prior to immigration taking off under New Labour!
We can use this figure of 60,000 as a guideline for numbers going forward.
We can say that the figure of 60,000 is a historic norm which should be the guideline for those accepted for settlement each year in future.
And we can say that this figure should also guide the annual long-term gross immigration figures allowed in the country in the first place.
We can say that we should have no more than 60,000 to 100,000 gross long-term immigrants allowed into the country each year and there should be no more than the pre-1997 historic norm of 60,000 accepted for settlement each year.
REFERENCES
1. Gov UK, "Check if you can get indefinite leave to remain".
2. Gov UK "How many people are granted settlement or citizenship?", 29 February 2024, at para 4.1.
3. This article is not looking at the many people whose visas have run out, or who are not granted refugee status, but who choose to stay on illegally anyway.
4. Page 38 of the pdf "Control of Immigration: Statistics United Kingdom 2009" states:
"The number of persons granted settlement in the United Kingdom, excluding EEA and Swiss nationals, rose by 31 per cent from 148,935 in 2008 to the highest level (194,780 in 2009) since records began in 1960."
5. Home Office, "Immigration statistics data tables, year ending December 2019", 27 February 2020. See Table se.06 in the Excel spreadsheet entitled "Settlement data tables – Immigration Statistics, year ending December 2019 (ODS, 823 KB)" which can be found on the page under the heading "Settlement".
The Excel spreadsheet can also be downloaded here:
6. Home Office. "Immigration system statistics data tables", 24 August 2023. See Table se_01 in the Excel spreadsheet entitled "Settlement summary tables, year ending June 2024 (ODS, 50.6 KB)" which can be found on the page under the heading "Settlement".
The Excel spreadsheet can also be downloaded here:
For more articles on this subject see our Territorial Sovereignty: Article Index
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