SNP Down to Single Figures!
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RESULTS IN SCOTLAND
Let's take a look at the 75th-ever British General Election results of 4-7-24 in Scotland. Bear in mind that since 2019 there are now 57, not 59, Westminster Seats in Scotland.
Labour: 37 seats (up 36), 35.3% of the vote.
SNP: 9 (down 39), 30%.
Conservatives: 5 (down 1), 12.7%.
Lib Dems: 6 (up 2), 9.7%.
Reform: 7%.
Green: 3.8%.
Alba: 0.5%.
Others: 1%.
VOTE COMPARISON between PRO and ANTI-UK PARTIES
These figures are from Wikipedia's page on the General Election in Scotland:
Total Vote FOR PRO-UK Parties in Scotland
Labour: 851,897
Conservative: 307,344
Lib Dems: 234,228
Reform UK: 167,979
British Unionist Party: 614
Social Democratic Party: 426
UK Independence Party: 313
Heritage Party: 230
Total FOR UK = 1,563,031 (64.73% of total vote).
Total Vote FOR ANTI-UK Parties in Scotland
SNP: 724,758
Scottish Greens: 92,685
Alba: 11,784
Scottish Socialist Party: 1,007
Independence for Scotland Party: 678
Sovereignty: 304
Total ANTI-UK = 831,216 (34.42% of total vote).
Other parties and independent candidates whose stance is unknown, or who don't take a position on the matter: 20,563 (0.85%)
Total vote in Scotland in 2024 = 2,414,810 (59.2% Turnout).
(The above figures in graphic form>
COLLAPSE IN SNP VOTE
At the General Election in 2019, the SNP got 1,242,380 votes and 48 seats. On Thursday 4th July 2024, they got 724,758 votes and 9 seats.
That is, they lost 517,622 votes on their result in 2019! Over half a million!
This suggests that a large "soft nationalist" vote will have moved to Labour. And, with the turnout in Scotland the lowest at a General Election for a long time (59.2%) a large number of disenchanted SNP supporters will simply have stayed home.
The Labour vote rose 340,059; up from 511,838 in 2019 to 851,897 in 2024.
The Conservative Party got 385,595 fewer votes in Scotland. In 2019 they got 692,939, but 307,344 in 2024, and lost 1 seat.
The Lib Dem vote was down slightly from 263,417 in 2019 to 234,228 – a difference of 29,189, but they picked up 2 extra seats!
Reform got a total of 167,979 votes in Scotland, which was astonishing for a first outing!
(Reform UK votes in Scotland by percentage>
LABOUR THREATENED BY GREENS, AND REFORM
UK-wide, Labour are threatened by the Greens on the left, and by Reform on the right.
For example, in England, Reform came second in 98 seats. Of these, 89 of them were won by Labour! The Greens came second in 40 seats, 39 of which were won by Labour.
This means that Labour might try to pitch different views on immigration and "climate change", depending upon which of its constituencies it's speaking to!
In Scotland – which is completely different from England, because here we have 5, not 3 major parties – Reform nevertheless came 3rd in 14 of the 57 constituencies, and 4th in 30 of them!
Of these 14 third places, 13 of them were won by Labour, with SNP second – suggesting that Reform in Scotland is benefiting from a similar demographic which gives it support in the North East of England.
(Reform UK votes in Scotland by place>
THE REGIONAL VOTE IN 2026
In 2021, Labour won 2 Constituency MSPs, and 20 MSPs on the Regional list.
If Reform can keep up the pressure, then there is a good chance that it can win seats in every Region, very possibly taking regional seats from Labour.
For example, to definitely get elected in the "Glasgow" Region requires 5.6% of the vote on the Regional ballot. Reform got an average across the Glasgow constituencies in that Region (which includes Rutherglen) of 5.7%.
Across Scotland it was an average of 7% - enough to put perhaps 8 Reform MSPs into the Scottish Parliament, with the possible exception of the Edinburgh Region, where it lost all 5 deposits!
This is also possible since (unlike this time around) more people will be able to vote freely for Reform on the Regional list, which is done by PR, without the fear that they "might be letting in the SNP".
Therefore, as we look around to find points of leverage to oppose Labour's plans for more immigration into Scotland, we see that "fear of losing votes to Reform at Holyrood" should be a very real consideration for Labour – that is, if it is willing to put the practical consequences for its party before the promotion of a reckless immigration ideology.
Also, nothing should be taken for granted!
For now, the SNP looks like it is on a downer, but things can change rapidly in politics, especially Scottish politics!
For example, what finished Tony Blair and New Labour in Scotland was the Iraq War.
If Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar do not learn that lesson, and end up entangling the UK further in foreign conflicts then the SNP will be the beneficiary once again (and maybe even Reform)!
Below: Alistair McConnachie of A Force For Good discusses Reform UK's results with Luca Johnson of Amiable Arguments. From "Good Evening Britain!" our weekly Wednesday show on 10-7-24.
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